Best Picture- Drama
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Manchester By the Sea
I flip-flopped on this for a while but figured if the HFPA really loved Manchester, they'd have nominated Lucas Hedges as well. Moonlight has been the indie critics darling and I think it may just continue here.
Best Actress- Drama
Will Win: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Could Win: Amy Adams (Arrival)
I feel like Jackie hasn't been received overly well to non-American audiences so I'm not too solid on this prediction but she won the Critics Choice award so I don't see why I wouldn't predict her. However, t he HFPA loves Amy and she did win with NBR and Arrival has also been doing well at the box office. I could see her surprising for the win.
Best Actor- Drama
Will Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
Could Win: Denzel Washington (Fences) or Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Evidence seems to point that this is Casey's to lose, but watch out for Denzel, who's film has been playing very well at the box office right now. However, I feel like we could be underestimating Andrew Garfield. Hacksaw was much more loved than the HFPA than we predicted and this may their way of rewarding Mel without actually rewarding Mel (plus he's the only of these 3 to be playing a true life character)
Best Picture- Comedy/Musical
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: ???
I don't think anyone else stands a chance here. Florence Foster Jenkins seems a distant second.
Best Actress- Comedy/Musical
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Could Win: Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Emma winning seems as locked in as La La Land winning Picture. Again, Meryl is a distant second.
Best Actor- Comedy/Musical
Will Win: Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Could Win: Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Ryan Gosling seems like the obvious pick here, but will La La Land really win Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Score and Song (going 6/7)? The other Canadian Ryan seems like he could be a threat here, but I don't really see it happening.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Could Win: Michelle Williams (Manchester By The Sea)
This seems to be Viola's, no question. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here. Who knows?
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Could Win: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
I think Mahershala Ali should take this but again, I could see Jeff Bridges or even Dev Patel upsetting here.
Will Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Could Win: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Both are relatively new to the scene but I think Chazelle takes this. La La Land is by far our overall awards frontrunner here and I think he'll take the directing prize here.
Will Win: Manchester By The Sea
Could Win: Moonlight
Again, a battle between Manchester and Moonlight but I think Manchester By the Sea takes this one. The screenplay is beautiful, human and heartbreaking and I think they'd love to award Kenneth Lonergan this one.
Best Animated Film
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Moana
This category has seen a few upsets here in the last few years so I wouldn't be surprised to see one again but this should easily go to Zootopia. Right?
Best Foreign Film
Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Could Win: Elle
I was tempted to put Elle since Isabelle Huppert got an acting nomination for it. I may regret this prediction later but I'm following the pack and predicting Toni Erdmann.
Best Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion or Arrival
I think La La Land should easily take this but HFPA may go for Arrival (which was deemed ineligible by the Academy) or toss a bone to Harvey for Lion.
Best Original Song
Will Win: City of Stars (La La Land)
Could Win: How Far I'll Go (Moana)
I mean, I'm still bitter "Drive It Like You Stole It" from Sing Street wasn't nominated here, but I think again La La Land should handily take this. However, I wouldn't be surprised if either Moana or Trolls (Justin Timberlake on stage!) steals this.